Analysis and attribution of changes in Siberian hydroclimate and implications for the future

Summary:

This work will document observed changes in the hydroclimatology of the Siberian region, attribute these changes to specific physical mechanisms in the context of climate change, and study the impact of those changes from the regional to the hemispheric weather and climate. The project will use observational analysis and modeling experiments to investigate the links between arctic sea ice trends and changes to seasonal snow cover. The autumn snow cover is of particular interest due to its persistent increases over the last two decades despite the robust warming trend and its connection to stratosphere- troposphere coupling and hemispheric variability in the subsequent winter season.

*This project is funded is through a National Science Foundation OPP-ARC grant. It is included with the CSAS projects because it has a strong seasonality focus and is closely aligned with this group of funded projects.

Supplemental Project File(s):

Keywords:

Climate change
Climatology / Meteorology
Hydrology
Modeling
Sea ice
Snow
System science

Programs:

Arctic System Science Program

Region:

Russia

Funding Agency:

National Science Foundation

Funding Solicitation/Announcement:

Arctic Research Opportunities: NSF 10-597

Unique Project Identifier (Grant #, Project #, Other):

0909457
0909525
0909272

Grant/Project Funding Amount:

$180389
$283374
$175150
Judah Cohen, PI
Seasonal Forecasting
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.
131 Hartwell Avenue
Lexington , Massachusetts USA
781-761-2288
Jessica Cherry
Jessica Cherry, PI
International Arctic Research Center and Institute of Northern Engineering
University of Alaska Fairbanks
930 Koyukuk Drive
Fairbanks , Alaska USA
907-474-5730
Mathew Barlow
Mathew Barlow, PI
Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences
University of Massachusetts Lowell
One University Avenue
Lowell , Massachusetts USA
978-934-3908
Vladimir Alexeev
Vladimir Alexeev, Co-PI
PO Box 757340
930 Koyukuk Drive
Fairbanks , Alaska USA
907-474-6430

Journal Publications

Alexeev, V.A., I.N. Esau, I.V. Polyakov, S.J. Byam, and S.Sorokina (2011), "Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming from observed data and reanalysis products", Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0192-8.

Jones, J. and J. Cohen (2011), "Climatology of strong polar anticyclonic activity", J. Climate, 24, 2599-2611.

Roberts, A., J. Cherry, R. Doscher, S. Elliot, L. Sushama (2011), "Exploring the Potential for Arctic Systems Modeling", Bulletin of the American Met. Soc., 92, doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2959.1.

Cherry, J.E., S. Walker, N. Fresco, S. Trainor, and A. Tidwell (2010), "Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Hydropower in Southeast Alaska: planning for a robust energy future", Report to NOAA-NMFS Hydropower coordination office. Download Seak Report PDF (2.4 MB)

Cohen, J., J. Foster, M. Barlow, K. Saito and J. Jones (2010), "Winter 2009/10: A case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event", Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L17707, doi:10.1029/2010GL044256.

Rawlins, M.A., M. Steele, M. Holland, J.C. Adam, J.E. Cherry, J.A. Francis, P. Groisman, L.D. Hinzman, T.G. Huntington, D.L. Kane, J.S. Kimball, R. Kwok, R.B. Lammers, D.P. Lettenmaier, K.C. McDonald, E. Podest, J.W. Pundsack, B. Rudels, M.C. Serreze, A. Shiklomanov, O. Skagseth, T.J. Troy, C.J. Vorosmarty, M. Wensnahan, E.R. Wood, R. Woodgate, D. Yang, K. Zhang and T. Zhang (2010), “Intensified Water Cycle? Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle: Observations and Expectations”, Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1.

Papers submitted

Cherry, J.E., “Arctic Hydroclimatology” in Encyclopedia of Snow, Ice, and Glaciers, Ed., V.P. Sing, P. Singh, U.K. Haritashya, Dordrecht, Springer (2010) (in press).

Cohen, J. and J. Jones, "Tropospheric precursors and stratospheric warmings", J. Climate (2011) (in press).

Foster, J.L., G. Skofronick-Jackson, H. Meng, J.R. Wang, G. Riggs, P.J. Kocin, B. T. Johnson, J. Cohen, D.K. Hall and S.V. Nghiem, "Remote Sensing of the Historic February 2010 Snow Storms in the Middle Atlantic Region of the U.S.: Focusing on the Baltimore/Washington Metropolitan Area", Hydrological Processes (2011) (in review).

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, and J. Cohen, "Planetary- and synoptic-scale feedbacks between tropospheric and sea ice cover changes in the Arctic", Tellus, (2011) (in press).

Polyakov I.V., and V.A. Alexeev, et. al., "Nowcast: Fate of early-2000's Arctic warm water pulse", BAMS, (2011) (in press).

Smith, K., P.J. Kushner and J. Cohen, "The role of linear interference in Northern Annular Mode variability associated with Eurasian snow cover extent", J. Climate, (2011) (in press).

Vavrus, S., U. Bhatt, and V. Alexeev, "Factors Influencing Simulated Changes in Future Arctic Cloudiness", Journal of Climate, (2011) (in press).