Changing Seasonality of the Arctic: Alteration of Production Cycles and Trophic Linkages in Response to Changes in Sea Ice and Upper Ocean Physics

Summary:

BIOMAS
The configuration of the finite-difference grid of BIOMAS

Significant changes in the arctic environment have been detected in recent years. One of the most striking changes is the decline of arctic sea ice. A diminished arctic ice cover may have a profound effect on all components of the marine ecosystem. Despite the extreme polar conditions, the Arctic Ocean supports a complex pelagic food web that includes zooplankton, fish, birds, seals, walruses, whales and the top predator, the polar bear. At the base of the food chain, supporting all the marine life, are the phytoplankton and algae that produce organic carbon. The central hypothesis of this collaborative research is that reduction in ice cover and the concomitant upper ocean physical changes in response to climate warming will substantially modify and impact the seasonality of the Arctic planktonic marine ecosystem by altering the timing, magnitude, duration, and pattern of production cycles, with effects including changes in primary production, in utilization and cycling of organic carbon, in ecosystem function, and in the relative proportions of biomass in the different ecosystem components. To address this overarching hypothesis, we plan to synthesize model estimates and available field observations retrospectively and predicatively. The model to be developed is a coupled pan-Arctic Biology/Ice/Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (BIOMAS) that aims at an integrated understanding of three components of the arctic system: sea ice, ocean, and the planktonic ecosystem.

Keywords:

Biological oceanography
Modeling
Ocean
Physical oceanography
Sea ice
System science

Programs:

Arctic System Science Program

Region:

Arctic Ocean

Funding Agency:

National Science Foundation

Funding Solicitation/Announcement:

Changing Seasonality in the Arctic System (CSAS): NSF 08-567

Unique Project Identifier (Grant #, Project #, Other):

0901987
0901924
0901131
0901926

Grant/Project Funding Amount:

$391639
$248347
$152342
$108539
Jinlun Zhang
Jinlun Zhang, PI
Applied Physics Laboratory (APL)
University of Washington
1013 NE 40th Street
Seattle , Washington USA
206-543-5569
Yvette Spitz
Yvette Spitz, PI
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
Oregon State University
104 COAS Administration Building
Corvallis , Oregon USA
541-737-3227
Carin Ashjian
Carin Ashjian, PI
Department of Biology
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
MS #33 WHOI
Woods Hole , Massachusetts USA
508-289-3457
Robert Campbell
Robert Campbell, PI
Graduate School of Oceanography
University of Rhode Island
215 South Ferry Road
Narragansett , Rhode Island USA
401-874-6692
Michael Steele
Michael Steele, Co-PI
1013 NE 40th Street
Box 355640 Henderson Hall
Seattle , Washington USA
206-543-6586

Journal Publications

Steele, M., J. Zhang, and W. Ermold (2010), "Mechanisms of summertime upper Arctic Ocean warming and the effect on sea ice melt", J. Geophys. Res., 115, C11004, doi: 10.1029/2009JC005849.

Zhang, J., M. Steele, and A. Schweiger (2010), "Arctic sea ice response to atmospheric forcings with varying levels of anthropogenic warming and climate variability", Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20505, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044988.

Zhang, J., Y.H. Spitz, M. Steele, C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, L. Berline, and P. Matrai (2010), "Modeling the impact of declining sea ice on the Arctic marine planktonic ecosystem", J. Geophy. Res., 115, C10015, doi: 10.1029/2009JC005387.

Panteleev, G., D.A. Nechaev, A. Proshutinsky, R. Woodgate, and J. Zhang (2010), "Reconstruction and analysis of the Chukchi Sea circulation in 1990-1991", J. Geophys Res., 115, C08023, doi: 10.1029/2009JC005453.

Papers Submitted

Johnson, M., A. Proshutinsky, Y. Aksenov, A. Nguyen, R. Lindsay, C. Haas, J. Zhang, N. Diansky, R. Kwok, W. Maslowski, S. Hakkinen, I. Ashik, B. de Cuevas, "Evaluation of Arctic sea ice thickness simulated by AOMIP models", JGR-Ocean, (2011) (submitted).

Peralta-Ferriz, C., J.H. Morison, J.M. Wallace, and J. Zhang, "A basin-coherent mode of sub-monthly variability in Arctic Ocean bottom pressure", Geophy. Res. Lett. (2011) (submitted).

Popova, E., A. Yool, A.C. Coward, F. Dupont, C. Deal, S. Elliott, E. Hunke, M. Jin, M. Steele, J. Zhang, "What controls primary production in the Arctic Ocean? Results from an ecosystem model intercomparison", JGR-Ocean (2011) (submitted).

Schweiger, A., R. Lindsay, J. Zhang, M. Steele, H. Stern, "Uncertainty in Modeled Arctic Sea Ice Volume", JGR-Ocean, (2011) (submitted).

Steele, M., W. Ermold, and J. Zhang, "Modeling the formation and fate of the near-surface temperature maximum in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean", JGR-Ocean (2011) (submitted).

Wang, J., H. Eicken, Y. Yu, X. Bai, J. Zhang, H. Hu, M. Ikeda, K. Mizobata, and J. Overland, "Model-data fusion studies of Pacific Arctic climate and ice-ocean processes", Springer PAR Synthesis Book Chapter 6 (2010) (in press).